Archive for June, 2006

June 19-23 Economic Week in Review

This week is a longer episode (9 minutes) where I recap last week’s economic news as well as explain the significance of economic reports for last and next week. Let me know what you think of the new format, email talk (at) econtechblog.com!

The news was mixed:

  • The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators fell in May by a steep 0.6%. Figures for recent months were revised downward.
  • The housing market perked up a bit, but the outlook is still cloudy. New residential construction increased 5.0%, but it was mostly led by apartments and condos. Single family homes lead the long term boom.
  • Durable goods decreased down 0.3% in May, following a 4.7% decline in April. If you factor out the transportation sector, though orders rose 0.7%.
  • Next week there are many reports to be released, summarized here.

References: Vanguard’s Economic Week in Review, Explanations of Economic Reports.

Posted on 24th June 2006
Under: economics, economic week in review, investing, podcast | No Comments »

June 12-16 Economic Week in Review

After a rocky week on Wall Street, it is nice to have a weekend to reflect on some underlying economic data. Email me at talk@EconTechBlog.com, I look forward to hearing from you.

This week’s Economic Week in Review covers:

  • Readings of inflation at the wholesale and consumer levels heightened expectations for another interest rate increase by the Fed at their June 28-29th meeting.
  • The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% in May, less than analysts’ expectations.
  • Over the past 12 months, the overall PPI was up 4.5% (the core was up 1.5%)
  • Inflation at the consumer level posted a significant increase in May: the CPI rose 0.4%. Key drivers were higher shelter and energy costs. Over the past 3 months the core was up an annualized 3.8%.
  • The Fed released their “Beige Book” indicating continued economic growth in all regions, however there was increasing evidence of a slowdown.
  • Residential real estate and consumer-spending growth both cooled off.
  • Retail sales posted a 0.1% increase in May (the third consecutive gain).
  • Total business inventories rose a less-than-expected 0.4%, due to an unexpected drop in retail inventories.

Posted on 17th June 2006
Under: economics, economic week in review, investing, podcast | No Comments »

June 5-9 Economic Week in Review

Direct link to Vanguard Economic Week in Review.
There was not a large amount of economic news this week, and the market was jittery over inflation:

  • Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated inflation persisted at an uncomfortably high level
  • For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.8%
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index report showed continued growth in this sector for May, but slower than in April
  • Consumers went on a borrowing binge in April: consumer credit grew at 5.9% annualized rate.
  • The Trade Balance grew, increasing the trade deficit by $1.6 Billion (to $63.4 Billion)
  • Next week there are six major reports for the market to digest: 1) Producer Prices, 2) Consumer Prices, 3) Retail Sales, 4) Business Inventories, 5) Fed’s Beige Book, and 6) Fed’s Industrial Production report.

Send comments to talk (at) econtechblog.com, I really appreciate your feedback!

Posted on 10th June 2006
Under: economics, economic week in review, investing, podcast | No Comments »

Broadband as a driver in social progress and economic development

There is an interesting videoconference on Broadband as an economic development driver by Steve Rosenbush, senior Writer at BusinessWeek Online engine.

http://www.iian.ibeam.com/events/mcgr004/14273/index.jsp?autoLogin=false lets you log in. It should be free, although you may need to create an account.

Some interesting tidbits:

  • The US has 94 telephone lines per 100 people.
  • Developing countries may only have 5 lines per 100 people.
  • A 1% increase in phone lines leads to a 3% increase in GDP
  • Nov 2003: 35% of US internet users had high speed access, May 2004: 42%, Dec 2004: 50%, 2005: 53%+

Dr. John Rudledge of Rudlege Capital, LLC (Economic Advisor to Reagan and Bush) talks about what is broadband. He suggests it is a verb, not a noun. It means you’re faster than everyone else. Once the “Pony Express” was broadband, now it is wireless and cable internet, for some it is optical fiber to the desktop. He continues,

“I think of broadband as the Central Nervous System of the economy…. America is not competing for jobs, but capital. Capital makes you productive and allows you to earn a paycheck. We need to learn to compete for capital with other countries in the world who know the importance of telecom capital. … China’s current energy use 20 years in the future (with no conservation) uses more than total world production today. … Because of that impending clash, they are shifting resources from oil and gas industries to IT growth [and efficiency.] … The US is in 16th place in the world telecom speed tables.

Christina Heakart (?) is the Gen. Mgr. of Marketing for Microsoft TV. She points out that the entire broadband revolution is limited to people using PC’s. It’s helped businesses and homes (with PC’s) into the digital age. In 5-10 years broadband will bring it to the TV. We will see the ignition of enormous new amounts of new commerce, new ways to communicate, unite community, and new content. … Bring the TV in as a full citizen to the digital age. TV will become 2-way and no longer 1-way.

Leo Hinderly, Jr (Managing Partner of InterMedia) claims broadband is not available to all and is in fact discriminatory–favoring urban and wealthy areas; rare in rural and poor areas.

Once again, John Rudledge says there is not (or only recently) a broadband policy in the administration. Most pressure for reform has come out of congress.

“5 years ago 40% of telecom equipment was made in the US, now it is down to 20%. R & D is going as well. Because the manufacturing factor is going, the intellectual aspect is getting more and more important. This year [2005], China will make more engineers than America + Germany + Japan.”

Christine advocates the free market to “wave it’s invisible hand” that will allow economic models to emerge for the digital divide to reunite. Most people that are poor don’t have PC’s. They have TV’s but not PC’s. It doesn’t matter if they have broadband in the home if they can’t use it.

About Christine’s point with poor not having PC’s — the open source community in Chicago has been working on creating free machines in exchange for volunteer hours building refurbished PC’s out of donated hardware. I’ve been volunteering there, and I encourage you check out their website at www.freegeekchicago.org With some digging, you can even find some pictures of me, I suspect.

Then they go into a lengthy Q & A where I stopped watching. I’m tired and can use my sleep to arrive at work early and get my laptop to then meet with Chris Perry, CEO and Frank Gruber, blogger extraordinaire (and tech event planner) two fascinating entrepreneurial types.

Posted on 7th June 2006
Under: economics, philosophy, technology, international, globalization | No Comments »

Econ Week in Review May 29-June 2

A link to the latest Economic Week in Review from Vanguard is here.
Overall there were signs of a slowing economy:

  1. Construction spending fell 0.1% in April with declining spending in both private and public sectors.
  2. Residential building dropped 1.1% in April (reflecting three straight months of declining housing starts).
  3. Manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in May. ISM Index declined to 54.4 in May from 57.3 in April.
  4. Factory orders fell 1.8% in April (compare to a 4.0% gain in March).
  5. Substantially fewer jobs were created in May than analysts expected. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 75,000 (while analysts expected 182,000).

Listen to the 6 minute podcast now!

Posted on 2nd June 2006
Under: economics, economic week in review, investing, podcast | No Comments »