Last week was pretty quite, except for the CPI numbers that came out.
The CPI came out higher than expected for January (we’re on track for high 2% inflation in 2007, not the Fed’s expected 2 to 2.25%)
Everything else was pretty quite. Oil pushed over 60, unemployment claims were trending steady, and a few signals peaked out for a slowing housing market.
Listen now, it’s mighty powerful and short: under 2:30. Although it is not my awesome editing mix-down skills that got it that short. I just switched to a mac this week, and I’m still getting used to everything. The first several I recorded didn’t work so this one is brief.
The latest economic week in review podcast. Six minutes and 15 seconds of listening pleasure.
The FOMC’s Chairman, Ben Bernanke suggested they are disinclined to raise interest rates. This buoyed market sentiment and the S&P 500 saw two days of double digit gains. Underlying economic data was not so rosy, though. Retails sales were flat in January, industrial production slowed, and housing continued to slow (starts in January were down 14.3% from December).
The earnings reports produced good numbers (Cisco, Disney, Prudential and others reported.)
Nonfarm productivity bounced back in Q4 2006, growing at an annualized 3.0%. Overall for 2006 productivity growth was only 2.1%, the lowest since 1.6% in 1997.
With a flurry of excitement and reasonably good economic news, I present to you the podcast:
Click the play button to listen live above (if you’re viewing this from JAWspeak). It’s 6 minutes long.
In brief, we saw rising numbers come out for Q4 GDP (3.5% annualized), the FOMC steady on interest rates, slowness in the housing market, and a dip in the ISM manufacturing index. But why read this when you can listen for yourself?
January is almost over. We’re 7.1% through 2007 already. Time feels to be moving very quickly for me.
Two opposing reports came out for December’s housing market. Orders for durable goods increased and an index of leading economic indicators inched up. The S&P 500 touched a six-year high on Wednesday but decreased 0.4% for the week to 1,422. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note increased 11 basis points to 4.88%.
December’s new-home sales were up 4.8% (but still down 17.3% from December 2005).
December’s existing-home sales fell 0.8% from the previous month.
Inventory levels (both for new and existing homes) tightened in December from November’s levels.
December’s average new home price was $290,000; for an existing home it was $269,000.
December’s orders for manufactured durable goods increased 3.1% and were up 7.0% from last year.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators increased 0.3% in December. 6 out of 10 indicators were positive.
For six months through December, the index increased at an annualized rate of 0.3%.
Here’s the latest Economic Week in Review podcast. Inflation was not too bad in 2006. Thanks for listening.
The PPI rose only 1.1% in 2006. Compare this to 5.4% for 2005 and 4.2% for 2004
The CPI rose 2.5% in 2006, compare to 3.3% and 3.4% in ‘04 and ‘05
Industrial production grew 0.4% in December, after 3 months of declines
The Fed’s Beige Book indicated modest expansion, price gains, and a tightening labor market.
December’s new-home residential grew for the second month in a row, 4.5% - more than expected. However, the growth is in multiunit residences, as the single-family homes actually declined for the month. Compared with December 2005, residential housing starts were down 18%.
Listen live now, click below to play the 7 minute podcast.
After an extended absence I have returned! What happened last week on the economics front? Oh, funny you should ask, I’ve got just the answer! We had mixed economic news:
November saw a $12.3 billion increase in U.S. consumer credit (largest since Aug. 2006)
December retail sales were unexpectedly strong, increasing 0.9%
Manufacturers and wholesalers saw business inventories increase 0.4% overall
The U.S. trade deficit shrank 1.0% in November to $58.2 billion
Activity picked up a bit last week after the prior holiday week.
The Q3 GDP growth showed stronger-than-expected growth. The “preliminary” reading came out and indicated a 2.2% annualized Q3 growth rate.
The Fed’s Beige Book indicated moderate economic growth since the last report in mid-October. All districts were much more positive than analysts expected. Softness remains largely confined to the housing and automotive industries.
New single-family home sales for October fell 3.2%. Sales are off 25.4% compared with the October 2005 level.
October’s existing homes sales crept up 0.5% (It was the first month-over-month gain since February.) The median sales price is $221,000
October new construction spending fell 1%.
The ISM manufacturing index fell to 49.5 in November. Numbers under 50 indicated contraction in the manufacturing sectors. This is the first time it fell below 50 since April 2003.
Last week the market was pretty flat, and economic reports were sparse. One that was released was:
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose 0.2% in October, following a 0.4% increase in September (revised upward from 0.1%). It was the first time the index achieved consecutive monthly gains in 2006. Six of the index’s ten components, most notably real money supply, increased in October.
